Respect the Nankai trough earthquake, I was warned about "what happens when" basically so far, but this time, by a huge earthquake, I would like to think, "how much damage or get out." Long-term evaluation Earthquake Research Committee, the government announced on May 24 it is not strange to have a 60% to 70% chance of M8 or larger earthquake occurs in the Nankai trough in the next 30 years, when even after a seismologist that more than a few.
Earthquake preparedness working group of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Central Disaster Management Council (hereinafter WG) materials, the second report of the assessment of the damage of the earthquake Nankai trough, a summary of the damage and economic losses objects on March 18 this year, I announced. In this earthquake, a large number of 320,003,000 people were killed, and 2,380,006,000 collapsed buildings to house opens.
The number of deaths number close to 20 times of the Great East Japan Earthquake, significantly higher than the approximately 28 million people from the dead or missing in Sumatra earthquake of 2004, it is the worst disaster in history. However, this is something that take the worst ..... on the lessons of the Great East Japan Earthquake, if happens once in a thousand years.
In a second report, an estimated 34.4 million people up to suspension of water supply, 27,100,000 hotels to a power failure, 9300000 line to become normal. In addition, the airport is to Kyushu tsunami flooded the Middle, people trapped in an elevator in the building, as well as to be nearly 20,003,000 people maximum. Hazardous materials, complex objects, between the coastal area of Shizuoka Prefecture - Oita Prefecture, the outflow is about 60 objects at a maximum, damaging about 890 properties expected and corruption.
But, even if ordered by a number of as much as become massive damage, it is difficult to understand is not good enough. "This is a huge disaster, which can be called (SNP) of the national crisis enormous human and material damages in excess of the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred," You know that (the second report of the WG).
20,003,000 people in the 7-position, Aichi Prefecture, including the metropolitan Nagoya, the assumption that 7700 people at the bottom, by feel, to see, what is it to live with that degree than it really Osaka. Author's fear, especially that the damage in Nagoya, who did not become a matter of serious than expected. You think there is evidence of this.
From February 8, 2012 in the "see the world", Mr. Matsubara Teruko prophet wrote.
Volcano is "Japan, and even if you want to write a 126 and a note" from now on to answer the "tail, this figure does not know the meaning, and refers to the years because I wanted to write this in 1891? As I wrote in the article Nankai trough earthquakes earlier, was at the discretion of the judge, "it is what it might mean, Nankai Trough earthquake that occurs following 2017 to 2017 and add 126 to 1891 IP is the interpretation of one. It or not, What about the fact that significant damage can occur in the Nobi you include Nagoya.
The first of the Nobi weak, damage assessment, damage and liquefaction of the worst class in the country in addition to shaking. In the presentation of the WG, this is an area where the plains Nobi, such as Aichi Prefecture, western, including Nagoya is easy to swing.
Major cities in Japan such as Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya until the experience of getting a direct hit on the M8 class of the modern era.
Assessment of the damage, the number of buildings destroyed by liquefaction is about 20,003,000 towing Aichi, the worst in the country. But these are measures of the status quo has not progressed.
■ Damage to the metropolitan area?
From this, it is worth noting also damage in the metropolitan area. Just because the earthquake epicenter Nankai trough far, sorry in the capital's "fire on the other side of the river." In Tokyo, it is estimated that in the worst case, the death toll from the tsunami and will be about 1,500.
It is assumed height of the tsunami would reach 3 m high in Tokyo, but do not have a little of this. In one tsunami m mortality due to the fact that up to 100%. In addition, the damage caused by liquefaction was the problem, such as Urayasu, Chiba Prefecture during the Great East Japan Earthquake, but the damage is also of concern. Masanori Hamada, School of Science and Technology, Waseda University professor and acting as "there is a possibility that large earthquakes, if it happens in the Nankai trough, liquefaction of the East Japan earthquake or more occurs in the metropolitan area," as well as from Nagoya " the Great East Japan earthquake near the epicenter that you shakes and many times, the damage that "would have been even greater. (22 June issue of "Shukan Gendai" 2013)
The earthquake Nankai trough, he said, is likely to be three interrelated earthquake is high, but the deflection of Suruga, some scientists are considering the possibility of further and work together, it's really four interrelated earthquake. This happens in Kanto, there is a risk of further serious damage occurs. Some scholars suggest the huge earthquake of five inter-related, including necessary.
■ traps and Cabinet WP?
Some part of the consideration of this fact takes place around the damage assessment Cabinet WG, to be fatal. This is the "assessment of the damage from the accident." Disaster Cabinet, said: "The nuclear disaster agency responsible for regulation, there has been no discussion," he said. Such as the assumption that more than 320,000 people were killed at the maximum, 'S estimates on the assumption that a serious accident has happened, such as Hamaokagenpatsu only.
Therefore, when the accident occurred in Hamaokagenpatsu, that would be hell. According to the writer Takashi Hirose, a shaking of seismic intensity 7, which is expected to fatal structure there is a possibility that the intake of underground tunnels to draw sea-water cooling to collapse, and there is only 20 minutes, the water main water tank for defective on that there is a risk causing melt.
As mentioned above, the assessment of damages Cabinet WP is based on the assumption of the worst, but when the cause of the accident Hamaokagenpatsu Fukuichi or more, the extent of the damage can be much higher. According to Mr. Sawa Chihiro (CNIC) Laboratory of Nuclear Materials, if an accident occurs in all Hamaokagenpatsu major earthquakes, large (Shizuoka range of up to 70 km in the wind direction from the nuclear power plant in collaboration researcher Diet Jikocho all parts) were killed by whole body exposure half in half) and Yamanashi Aichi (Shizuoka whole 110 km die.
In a range of 350 km, taking into account the health hazards that occur in the early (acute failure), to the east include the majority of Kanagawa Prefecture and western Tokyo.
This is becoming a reality, not a figurative representation, it can be "the end of Japan's" really are.
In fact, some scholars have argued that there has been several years in the earthquake Nankai trough. For example, in the "group is not happening", Tsunoda Fumio Emeritus Professor Masaaki Kimura played emeritus professor who predicted Hitting the big earthquake of many, such as the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Ryukyu), the new "heat transfer theory" (Saitama) are Dr. Takeo Moriya this topic, such as (Hokkaido Univ.) in the prediction of earthquakes echo.
■ huge earthquake did not laugh when he came as
Some scholars against him, a huge earthquake is imminent.
M6.3 earthquake occurred in Awaji on April 13 this year, Hideki Shimamura, Professor of Musashino Gakuin (seismology) is, may have been a prelude to the "Nankai Trough earthquake this earthquake. I'm talking about the countdown to the big earthquake," I may , has already begun. (22 June issue of "Shukan Gendai" 2013)
According to Shimamura said, in a few decades from a few years ago, an earthquake in the Nankai trough, seismic interior in western Japan, the aura that he can, as already begun. For example Geiyo western Tottori earthquake earthquake earthquake in Kobe in 1995 (M7.3), 2000 (M7.3), and 2001 (M6.7) earthquake is on the internal.
In order not to repeat the situation in the east Japan earthquake "unexpected" in areas where there is damage assessment will need to continue to take measures sufficient since that time.
■ Momose Naoya (Momose Naoya)
Spin-paranormal research house. Wake up to Spin the world as a teenager, to continue the pilgrimage inside and outside. Shamanism, ancient history, folklore, earthquake prediction, such as astrology and research. I also do various types of counseling. Ability to forecast earthquakes by dowsing. "The way the grief Via Dolorosa - Jesus walked," "knowledge needed to survive Collection ~ omen big earthquake" series of books, etc.