Saturday, June 22

Do not expect someone would actually believe earthquakes predictable tone like children, then again - you revive people who pretended to sleep, they always immersed in the illusion of security outside weave dreams, even if they are in a dream die, is a blessing. Reprint this article, in fact retained the literature, one day I recalled today, there is also such an article - if it will not be deleted if a hand

80,000 people dead do not lead to a few truth? (Previous) / Zhai Minglei
Zhai Minglei interviews and records

Wang Chengmin a key figure in the history of China's earthquake, Tangshan earthquake, he is responsible for the State Seismological Bureau of Tianjin earthquake in eastern China team. North coach insists there is earthquake characters. Tangshan painful lessons of his personal experiences, Zhou Enlai, Li siguang decision-making process, he witnessed it. In the State Seismological Bureau has presided integrated forecasting group work. Incumbent Secretary Chen Jianmin earthquake was his student. After the earthquake, by the central commission, presided over the aftershock forecast, in three rounds of three. He is a national 863 "earthquake prediction intelligent decision" subject leader. He petitioned the central requirements to trace the State Seismological Bureau's responsibility in Wenchuan. And successfully suppressed verify collected more than twenty Wenchuan forecast opinion, write "Wenchuan earthquake prediction on the existence of two sharply contrasting views of" a text.
 
80,000 people will not lead to the death of a few truth
 
Q: Wenchuan earthquake happened, we reflect on how to predict problems yet. I noticed that the outside of the Wenchuan earthquake prediction to say big differences, you go through four months of investigation has made many important information systems to get Seismological Bureau recognized leaders and experts, I think first of all to create an environment to tell the truth, we may correct anti-Si Wenchuan earthquake. Mr. Wang, after the earthquake, a large number of interviews you get first-hand information prediction workers, wrote two kinds of earthquake prediction in sharp opposition to the views. How do you see the Wenchuan reflection?

Wang Chengmin: Tangshan earthquake, China Seismological Bureau Liu Yingyong said: "I want to prepare to jail, it is the blood debt owed to the people." Liu Yingyong is a positive value of the old Communists, the Tangshan earthquake, he felt guilty regret, many times that I have guilt, I'm sorry on the central and lower sorry masses, before the earthquake in Tangshan earthquake did not give a more correct prediction views more attention and support.

Now the situation is better in Tangshan. These new bureaucracy without any guilt, regret and guilt, obsessed completely consider is how to deal with above and below. So I say a little sharp, then the death of 80,000 people, human life can not be exchanged a few words are the truth. The situation is very very serious. If someone would like to say a few words the truth, would be pressure from all sides, and limitations. We Chinese earthquake prediction Advisory Committee under the leadership requirements for earthquake prediction has an important say, I now I want to speak at the meeting, published articles, and to communicate with them face to face. Although this is the first handle (Chen Jianmin) are my students have to be rejected. Can not communicate, can not communicate completely avoided.

Recently, the name of the flag should solicit public opinion Seismological Society of China will have a meeting, I wrote an article in the past. Then the article said, Look no, your article is very good. I asked to speak at the meeting, discussion in the General Assembly, into conference proceedings, they said it should be like this. But until now no news. I called to ask, the staff said: "Wang teacher, I was responsible for leading the grant of which, I notice what people, I looked, batch file names without you." Blatant blockade freeze take the right advice . I wrote "Wenchuan earthquake prediction of two diametrically opposed views," I have modified to ease many, but they did not dare climb. Do not let me report.

Tangshan earthquake, I received a letter Seismological Bureau, an expert. The effect that "we have had contradictory arguments after the earthquake, I wake up, I feel I was wrong." Now this honest, very few people have a conscience. The Wenchuan controversy is very large, from start to finish, from the Wenchuan earthquake occurred three to four years, three two days, there have been different opinions in sharp debate this opinion have all been pressed down. Pressed down is not terrible, terrible is not acknowledge the problem until now, no one had ever publicly acknowledged such a debate is highly unlikely, we believe that no earthquakes. No one conscience, write a letter to say that this thing is I was wrong. Including specialized writing before the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Seismological Bureau, former director of the Han Wei Bin, he specialized in writing articles, who said that the recent earthquake, this view is wrong. December 2007 as the title of the article capped article. From the Sichuan Seismological Bureau to the Secretary, from start to finish, after the earthquake a year now, no one said one, as if this matter is nothing wrong with me a little. This is very different from the Tangshan earthquake. After all, after the Tangshan earthquake a group of people that we were wrong. So now I feel more bad situation, do not speak the party, do not speak the people, is to go all out to defend their official positions, has come to such a degree.

Talk about truth to appropriately

Q: I think the courage to say the truth, is not difficult, but how to appropriately tell the truth is difficult. What do you think before the earthquake some correct some of the comments?

Wang Chengmin: This question is very important to mention that you said something very important to say. The courage to uphold the truth has been difficult to talk about the truth difficult to talk about right. Truth step across this thing becomes ridiculous. I published this a dozen times before the earthquake correctly predict opinions are true and reliable, for their contribution to the history that there will be proper evaluation. But earthquake prediction is a world problem, reported on the bottom in a newspaper does not mean right, success is exploration success, failure is the failure of exploration. To be sure of success before the Wenchuan earthquake prediction hard facts, but exaggerate the effects of some forecasting methods, will play a counterproductive to be just right. For example, monitoring and prevention, the Tangshan earthquake, there is no exception? There are exceptions. If you blow it high to undue height, but let others say you are talking nonsense. Including Zhang Qingzhou article. Some parts are excessive. Professional teams seem to need, as long as there are two, eight in Majiagou few people will be able to Tangshan earthquake, they reported out. This is inconsistent with the facts. I can responsibly say that they speak only successful aspect of forecasts. But there are also a large number of false positives, some comrades, once reported success, and put himself referred to a height. Seismological Bureau, who in turn immediately grabbed his newspaper out of the problems. But this is your own drifted to his.

Q: How do Seismological Bureau forecasters severely fragmented with earthquakes fact, the Chinese people really do not up cooperation?

Wang Chengmin: Wenchuan earthquake now learned a lot in advance forecast is very good, Seismological Bureau does not recognize is wrong. Since they are impossible to predict earthquakes with the frame, take not and will not recognize the attitude. In addition, the earthquake prediction success, I think do not mind too hot, you do at this time quasi earthquake, but also a lot of you are being given, we have to sit down calmly lessons, depress the proportion of error, improve accuracy proportion

Seismological Bureau said the earthquake can not be forecast, Geng said could come up with examples of his prediction, Tangshan, Wenchuan, I agree that he has really done a forecast. But if you want to use this old Geng forecasts say that this is a panacea, this prescription can cure many diseases, this should not be exaggerated to a high degree, I would oppose.

Q: I need to find earthquake prediction learn from each other, comprehensive analysis, and co-operate have hope.

Wang Chengmin: Premier Zhou Enlai mentioned: "the harm done to our hills, we must work together, combined operations, a comprehensive analysis." To point to understand the way of earthquake prediction. I have never used "predict" the word, generally used "correctly predicted." All with the "right" or "wrong", not "accurate and precise." Because these things are not scientifically accurate. Geng ability it is locked in an area before the earthquake. Called twice, three times, four times, came. People say that you quoted area is too large, too long, he has done a lot of effort, five indicators, conjugate, want more clarification forecast, but it has too few examples further research is needed. Currently there is no prescription can cure all diseases, I take you a little something good, you get me some good things, a lot of things cross, a comprehensive analysis is the only way.

Earthquake experts have confused two "earthquake prediction" concept

Q: I understand carefully Seismological Bureau system earthquake prediction experts and leaders have a different view, I think: In addition to academic point of view, personal experiences have differences, whether they are inconsistent with the concept of earthquake prediction?

Wang Chengmin: Your question sharply, Seismological Bureau, a group of experts and leaders to adopt a mixed approach, he put the two concepts of earthquake prediction mix. A concept on it, called "scientific precision forecasting," is the first scientist to sit at home in front of the computer hard calculations, there is no "common people's lives and property, national task," these concepts is rather weak. Like the computer results, considered into what is what. This prediction requires high precision, science says very clearly. Scientists said, "can not predict earthquakes, the state newspaper is to let us let us do the impossible, is certainly to be mistakes. Therefore earthquake, Tangshan earthquake did not report it, it is understandable that the earthquake did not cross the border, to long-term research and mechanism, better to wait until after the pass, now anxious for Destructive Enthusiasm, but just the opposite. "ask these experts," When can I report? "They said, 'generations, a dozen, dozens of generations." This is the tradition of American experts say. That is to say, now is not forecast when it is time to study the accumulation of data. Remark plainly, socialism communism thing on to do, which is unrealistic. I asked, "When will it be able to report the earthquake?" They said all the mechanisms to figure out the future, in order to report the earthquake. I said: "In this way, we cure, disease mechanism is to figure out which one it? Cold, clear the mechanism is not clear? If clear, how have SARS, chicken flu, swine flu? This shows that there are variants of influenza mechanism did not engage in forever clearly changing, is not it will not cure the common cold, SARS will not rule, and do not cure the swine flu? definitely not ah. "

So faced with the second concept, not a scientific accurate forecasting, I call it the "operational effectiveness of forecasting." In the current study did not pass before the earthquake prediction we can take effective operational forecasts, we want to get results, not what the mechanism is not the mechanism, the mechanism will certainly be studied. Currently the use of knowledge to do it, how much experience do many things, this prediction is Zhou Enlai said, you want to make a call in advance. Is this thing. Premier Zhou said, "I do not predict scientific demanding you, but you can use a variety of phenomena, your experience, people's reactions, the accumulation of various aspects together clues, say hello to us in advance for the government to solve problems." He took such a task assigned to Siguang. Therefore, Premier Zhou Enlai very smart, but also very practical.

Chen Jianmin, the Secretary said a dozen now, dozens of generations. From a scientific prediction is possible, but how do dozens of generations ago? Earthquake recurrence how to do? Sit still? No other way: Only use the knowledge to do now is to Premier Zhou say hello. Seismological Bureau of it, he is the second approach: "Say hello to the people" movement of national money, but once an accident on the use of accurate forecasting impossible to refuse. This hands repeated application. This way I know, Seismological Bureau, I spent so many years, and sometimes, in your pocket some seismic data, another pocket to put some no seismic data. A lot of information, see the leading face. Leaders said recently strained state of affairs at home and abroad many cases, you have to do a good job. Do not give us trouble. We came up with the recent earthquake stability of the material so that the leaders at ease. If the leaders say that the earthquake is a priority, you would rather not get a thousand days without shock does not prevent, to come up at any time earthquake information to you. I found more and more in particular the leadership of the late leader, by the influence of the Cultural Revolution, have become leading politicians are pondering quasi earthquake prediction I was meritorious, earthquake prediction was wrong I was innocent, how like I can keep his post, day pondering these things, so many measures taken. This thing is very harmful. After the earthquake, we wrote a letter to the Central. Clear that this earthquake, Seismological Bureau is responsible, written in a very sharp, that do a good job, you can say hello beforehand. Should therefore be accountable.

Q: Can you talk about "can not predict earthquakes controversy," the ins and outs of it?

Wang Chengmin: Earthquake prediction has been controversial, I personally saw the older generation of academicians, academician different views on earthquake prediction. Why Premier Zhou said, "Li Lao iconoclastic", alone with a very precise schedule of the word, because it was a minority against the majority, of words Confucianism ah. Description Siguang opinion, a minority, is really so. Li Lao different, that earthquakes can be predicted, he has his set of ideas. So the Prime Minister asked him to run for the working group responsible for the Central Office of the earthquake, the Prime Minister said: "I am in command of the Li Lao, please come out, because he is confident of the earthquake prediction, if commanders do not have confidence, then, how can science lead us to overcome this difficulty." . Such administrative measures put unpredictability of earthquake prediction to the pressure any longer. Mental factors are very important.

Our team is always someone that earthquakes earthquake is unpredictable, so the prime minister to solve the problem: he says, "is not an exact prediction, is effective to use your experience to the people released, make a call." Prime Minister himself said to me In this case, "You ought to go on, like a bee to the earthquake zone people there, put them experience the same as honey bees taken back to lead science honey." This saying is much more exciting, to find a way to the masses look, the Prime Minister is not general political slogans. It is very good thought. Now our road gets narrower. Two different views of the controversy has always existed, but the key is the leading advocate what the objection, support what is, to have a distinct attitude, all these years just very weak in this regard. These problems are not technical, ideological chaos, from top to bottom, did not establish an earthquake prediction must take out out such an ambition, there is no practical way to predict themselves wondering how to solve one kind of people's difficulties as a guide Instead, the number of foreign models, mechanically with foreign standards.

Once, Science and Technology Minister Xu Guanhua visited eight hundred sixty-three exhibitions, he was in our "earthquake prediction intelligent decision" task before the panels, stopped and asked us how much money a year Seismological Bureau? It took what he said to go? I said station network transformation with Western countries practice. He asked the United States and Japan to engage in how well? I say they do not come out that earthquakes reported. Xu Minister said, that tracks what you do with them then? Standards in order to catch up with the world advanced level, and their levels worse than we, then what track you tell him? I said Xu Minister, you told me that does not work, you told us the Secretary said. Basic questions, these leaders did not consider. Day to engage in sophisticated instruments, we have many experts from the United States back. Day to engage in this thing, they can not predict ancestral say, you learn this stuff doing.

And they have a lot of Chinese earthquake prediction practical experience of experts, you do not Seismological Bureau, exclusion and rejection very badly. The method of earthquake prediction system over the past eight major areas, which are now leaders in eight major areas, we called eight great commander, mostly in my place (China earthquake prediction advisory committee). Such as magnetic, electrically, deformation, water, hydration, stress, Seismic and other means, are decades in earthquake prediction experts working hard in practice, has a wealth of practical experience.


After the earthquake prediction game official and civil


Q: I heard you put these old comrades organized successfully after the Wenchuan earthquake prediction several strong aftershocks?

Wang Chengmin: this is the case, we immediately after the earthquake to the central reflecting many cases, that there is an earthquake precursors, can be predicted that this earthquake has ten times the correct prediction opinion, as long as the work place, in the earthquake former Poke is possible. Central leaders to convey their instructions, if they say earthquakes can be predicted, then the ability to predict the Wenchuan aftershocks do to help countries solve problems. So I put the two committees, an advisory committee is an earthquake, a natural disaster forecasting committee, many members organize themselves according to the limited information at hand to carry out the aftershocks of the earthquake forecast, from May 15 to August 15, we reported a total of Three strong aftershocks, three entirely correct. Nothing wrong once. They are May 18 there will be 6.0,5 month on the 25th Green River 6.4, 7, 6.1 Beichuan May 29, three strong aftershocks, the largest of the three is the time.

The first prediction, from 18 to 20 projections. We also reported Seismological Bureau, and also by internal reference to the center. There is a plan, in the 17th reported that seven earthquakes in the Green River this area. On the 18th morning, the occurrence of six, magnitude higher. Earthquakes. I was behind the cancellation notice. 24 We have also reported 7, the 24th to the 28th. On the 25th Green River 6.4. The third is better, forecasting Kawakita Green River 6.5, the results were 6.1. We put this advice in Xiangshan Science Symposium, a forum will be held in the Ministry of Science reported. Talk about the process, some people say I'm too optimistic, saying that earthquakes can not be forecast. I took a course that everyone is convinced. Peking University, said a scientist, time, place at well, aftershock locations is relatively easy. He said seven and six differ thirty times. I said, you know prime directive? Know how the Haicheng earthquake reported out? Haicheng earthquake, we reported 5-6 earthquakes, the results were 7.3, the energy is three hundred times difference. Even so, prior prodded at least saved one hundred thousand individuals. People with no central leadership and demanding we must report more accurate, say hello to the people but to us, telling us not stable recently, there may be situations. We honestly not allowed to see someday, what place, just know this one. Such forecasts, the central authorities have very, very satisfied, no one told you to engage in scientific computing how many bits after the decimal point forecasts. This conceptual difference is very, very large.

Q: Will the earthquake, Seismological Bureau did not report out beforehand, predicted strong aftershocks also failed, so Chengdu spread, "terrible, did not report the earthquake, the earthquake came, more terrible than this is reported to the earthquake , earthquakes do not come. "mantra.

Wang Chengmin: Seismological Bureau reported very strong aftershock forecast is not good, and put the blame on us. Fortunately, we are two reported, and a prediction submit their views to the Seismological Bureau, another prediction comments via internal reference reporter to the central reporting. For example; May 17 we sent the forecast that from May 18 to play 21 strong aftershocks. Advice to the central projections to the central leadership in the hands of the same day, and I was deputy director of forecasting for car advice, car the next day to report to the leadership, then, Seismological Bureau leadership meeting, invite experts meet, finally made a 19 to 21 strong aftershocks on the prognosis. Sensation in Chongqing, Gansu, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi appear jump, chaos, too much pressure. In their discussion of the process, we reported an earthquake in the early morning on the 18th took place. We immediately announced forecasts lift, ready at a second earthquake, and report accurate, the result of an earthquake miss Seismological Bureau, the second earthquake did not like. Two dashed called time difference, he did not admit to being given that forecast by misleading other people, trying to put one of them we have caused people know the truth about our misunderstanding.

Three forecasting methods are old comrades ready. Chien industry, which is mainly three forecasting methods Chien industry played an important role. Zhang Min thick, Geng Qingguo, Guo additional methods such as, I was good to engage in a comprehensive analysis of all the data aggregated together.

Q: How do you organize two committee members who successfully predicted the three strong aftershocks?

Wang Chengmin: Earthquake Prediction key is integrated at any time you will receive a lot of information and different predictions views mutually contradictory, mutually exclusive, you need a person or group of people intelligent decision, from which integrated into a close with the facts Prediction opinions. Integrated approach is based on the history of their predictions, bigger credibility that way, that way in a certain area, a certain credibility big time, some methods used well in North China, Sichuan used poorly, Some methods spring good, some methods for the Earth's rotation slows down this method is good, bad becomes fast. Situation is very complicated. In the same means, the same way, the same device type is not the same person operation. The man reported too well, this month to rest, find another one, the same way the instrument, forecasting the success rate down. Twenty people twenty drama, discuss with each other, and sometimes mutually exclusive and need someone on forecasting methods, tools, equipment used, and his prediction strengths weaknesses rub together to complement each other, engage in powerful combination, in order to get some useful things. I've been doing work in these areas.

Tangshan earthquake Ye Hao, Ye Hao earthquake, three aftershocks, but for me is to summarize information practices, the first of these comrades to a clear understanding of the past history, this is my long-term accumulation of decades of experience, not the opinions of some people , views and academically are two different things. Some people even reported three times, his approach to the season, time together on the beat. Recently, this has previously reported well, now the old newspaper is not good, I would recommend playing his points lower. Subtle something, Seismological Bureau, the lack of such a person, so these things, every method, every person, do not listen to what he said hype, sometimes he did not very confident, very confident and sometimes, I do not care it, so just let I took the advice is objective statement. Earthquakes are predictable, of course reported aftershocks, the difficulty a little lower than the reported mainshock, the method is the same.

Chien industry approach is very good. I was completely from the scientific review her. She was a build up four units, but no matter Seismological Bureau, all things are handed down by an old married couple, despite the best efforts of her constantly repair constantly make up, but before the Wenchuan earthquake, leaving only a desk and instruments work sick, the central leadership attaches great importance to this invention, there are two deputy prime minister instructed, Zhang batch was very detailed, top batch lot, but not long-term implementation Seismological Bureau.

According to my statistics, China has correctly predicted 50 years, a total of three or four hundred times.

Q: China earthquake prediction level, what the international community is an earthquake what level?

Wang Chengmin: Haicheng needless to say. Prediction successful digital, we tend to be a record number of people and belongs officially reported results, in fact, more views are being suppressed, including my time in power is not without pressing too correct views. For example reported less consistent opinions and your views, I did not use him. Later proved he was right. These correct views (also a formal opinion) are not counted into the leadership adopted, then there is three or four hundred times. I was then the head of comprehensive prediction Seismological Bureau, Beijing and Tianjin team leader in charge of the Chinese Eastern forecasting, day views to the adoption, I integrated the analysis, did a few years in the country eight hundred sixty-three topic for ten years.

For example Weng Wenbo forecasting, is a Chinese thinking. Weng Wenbo from 1982 to 1992, forecast 252 right 211 times, the success rate of 83.7%. Prediction No. 68, he went to the United States to do the report, Mr. Green, the U.S. seismological authority asked if he could do a forecast for the United States. Weng Wenbo January 7, 1992, predicted 92 years on June 19, the San Francisco area will have 6.3 earthquake. The United States for decades this earthquake. Results 28 June 1992, in Los Angeles 7.3 earthquake hit. Biggest earthquake was Weng old newspaper accurately. He is a Chinese one old man, what information did not. Too much, how counted? Can not learn. Cause the United States a great sensation. Green said he was very surprised, wrote a written information to prove accurate forecasts, hoping to send someone to learn Weng old experience. This is an example.

As a further example, in 1995, the old Geng two of us, doing UNDP report. It was hoped at one time. A few days before the study. Geng as academic exchanges, announced on May 25 after five days, in the eastern part of Asia may have a 7.5 earthquake, I hope you pay attention to verification. Geng announced at the meeting, are you comprehensive advice, or use the storms approach. Combination storm founder called Zhang Tiezheng. Results at 21:00 on May 27 Sakhalin occurred 7.6 earthquake, serious injury or death. After that the person in charge of the UNDP to Dr. Song Jian wrote, "the United Nations very much appreciate the state-owned group of the world's top earthquake scientists, as well as they can on the Chinese border region earthquake time and place to make a fairly accurate prediction, I hope in this regard experience can teach about China. "


Q: what is the future of China's earthquake prediction?

Wang Chengmin: Tangshan earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake are almost, almost certain areas, earthquakes pass. I put together now reliable way to find a QianLao, Qian. Spoke again, talking about the Tangshan earthquake is reported out, and now the practice Seismological Bureau, not a dead end, Qian said you apply for an eight hundred sixty-three topic, I was responsible for ten years before retiring eight hundred sixty-three national issues, the best way together, and Seismological Bureau intends to do a comparison, ten years Seismological Bureau reported much better than I even do three. I have a total reported several times on several times, the success rate is forecast to fill cards, real.

The following is a comparison. First look at the official announcement of the China Seismological Bureau forecast accuracy:

Success rate of 25%, reported four prospective once.

Impending 10%, no more than 15%.

7 short-term earthquake prediction is only 5%.

Earthquakes greater prediction success rate is lower. People are truly terrible thing.

This is our 863 earthquake prediction accuracy rate statistics:

Large earthquake, the standard is five.

From 1996 to 1998, the occurrence of large earthquakes, 13, successfully four times, the success rate is 30%.

From 1998 to 2001, 11 times, six times successfully, the success rate is 54%.

From 2001 to 2003, 12 times, eight times successfully, the success rate of 66%.

863 subjects it to our achievements as A + class topic. Issues at the national eight hundred sixty-three 15th anniversary report show, the subject of my report specifically designated as content. In fact, only a year hundreds of thousands of research funds, and later hundreds of thousands a year, much less than the investment Seismological Bureau.

This is a pair of earthquake prediction capability decade test results, certificates, click path to follow Chinese earthquake prediction has greatly improved the success rate possible.

After the earthquake, I did three things, first, to the Central reflect underreporting earthquake truth;

Two directions under the leadership of strong aftershocks carried out on the prediction;

Three follow the leaders of the question of how rapidly improve predictive capability embodiment;
Q: Can you talk about specifically, three rounds before the Wenchuan earthquake controversy.
Wang: before and after the earthquake there are four major controversies. Overall views of right and wrong has four rounds.
From 2002 to 2007, the Sichuan Seismological Bureau Li read a letter this time, sent Seismological Bureau, said: "According to inadequate and can not be agreed to." Threatened if he re-tangled, then, to legal liability. Li read top up: You have to bear legal responsibility. Fight together with this thing. Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Seismological Bureau, two groups of experts have come before.
2006 to 2008, the Commission forecast natural disasters and earthquakes Advisory Committee Geng Qingguo, Huang Ning journal Phase phase, the second phase has predicted material. Advisory Committee Director Guo additions have also proved the case. 2008 Li read said that around empty and activate contingency plans.
Sichuan Seismological Bureau Ronde male special emphasis, in November 2008 before the earthquake there Longmenshan seismic zone, the only marked Longmenshan seismic belt is his.
Unfortunately, in consultation with the Sichuan Seismological Bureau month consultation, weekly consultation, getting lower and lower tone getting lower and lower.
The third round, is the group measuring point, including the PAN Zheng rights. It is worth mentioning that Chen Mingjun. He believes that in March 2008 there is a signal shock, with the Dujiangyan Municipal Seismological Bureau report, in April and again emphasized the great earthquake. Very nice forecast, there are systems with instruments. Fatigue limit theory. I have to say my collection is incomplete, timid dare not speak.
The fourth round, reported the earthquake aftershocks, I have introduced.

If I master these data, the earthquake is reported, you can not say who played the largest role, I have to say Geng Qingguo played a role. Li read also played an important role. Chen Mingjun group I've ever seen in the top three levels of measurement points, the method is very spiritual, the aftershocks, he reported on the secondary.

I have an article, "Tangshan Earthquake earthquake is a replica." Earthquake done worse. Plus the whole idea of ​​leadership chaos, not a technical problem, the technical level no problem. Level of bad leadership, poor. By foreign unpredictable effects on the earthquake is very bad.

Wenchuan earthquake is a replica of the Tangshan earthquake

Q: Why is the Tangshan earthquake in Wenchuan earthquake replica of it? You are someone who Tangshan earthquake, please say something.
Wang Chengmin: If the Tangshan earthquake trend analysis before the earthquake there, "something of the dispute" existed before the earthquake, "without dispute", two earthquakes in the same place undue reliance seismometry traditional statistical indicators, while ignoring the precursor and macroscopic phenomena. Many mistakes led to the Tangshan earthquake prediction techniques and methods before they repeat in the earthquake, many of the Tangshan earthquake had correctly predicted the same technologies and methods correctly predicted the earthquake, but the views of this prediction has not been seriously.

Q: What a joke, you have established a second headquarters Chinese earthquake prediction, the difference representing the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces.
Why and Tangshan compared the predictive ability of China Seismological Bureau, so backward, we can say all bets are off, on the contrary outside the system predicted the predictive ability of workers to raise the ratio of Tangshan many. This contrast is how it formed?
Wang Chengmin: Yes, ah, as a national eight hundred sixty-three Task Force. Seismological Bureau ideas and now is taking completely different. We would also like to go one way another, engage in out of the earthquake prediction. Now if you die in this generation is the pity. Incompetent too incompetent. Station network is 27 million more than just that. 27 million did not report accurate once the epicenter are reported are not allowed. Indeed getting worse, you ask Chen Yong, Guo enlargement, these relatively small guts of people, they also say that getting worse, but to the front of the leadership, they can not say. More big titles worse.
They used this method can not be reported earthquake, went abroad blind alley. He become increasingly thin, big things unseen. This debate is a leadership problem with the guiding ideology. For a leader, Song Ruixiang, foreign, business do not understand. Seismological Bureau of most people he blamed fiercely, I think this is a good leader. Do at least a three right thing.
First, the Advisory Committee was established. How established? Number of old comrades complain, we organized a meeting please listen Song Ruixiang, Conference strongly to what extent is it, pointing Song Ruixiang nose called, I think this is definitely a leader hated the old comrades. Results Song listened to old comrades, he felt desirable places yelled the most vicious people, such as I speak very powerful, he said, "Nanxiaowang you to be responsible. Advisory Committee representing politics chamber." Second, the money to resume business RHT wave, they tried various ways to go to be suppressed, and finally find Song Ruixiang, he listened, you say that three million, approved. Day batch. Third, he was Zhang Qingzhou "Tangshan Earthquake cautionary recorded" preface, this book was to be published.

Then who is not easy

Q: As the year and Premier Zhou, Li siguang many officials dealing with earthquakes, even if you talk about the earthquake was making insider. You are then groundwater experts, please talk to your aftereffect point theory.
Premier Zhou said: "sectarianism harm done to us."
Xingtai earthquake, Zhou Li siguang next earthquake will be asked what kind of place. Siguang say you give me a few months time. Then Siguang clearly stated Xingtai earthquake, should pay attention to Cangdong, Hejian subsidence to note.
I went to investigate, to xingji our day just at dinner, he asked fellow, here you have any special circumstances, the villagers say that we here xingji blowout is very powerful, he says 66 years in the spring began to spray, an until now In the spray jet is still in early 1967. I think Li Lao said, an earthquake influence field if there is a special exception, like acupuncture string action often abnormal. We xingji do a special investigation. Say exactly when the earthquake in Xingtai blowout. Report pay up soon, 67 March Hejian earthquake occurs, Hejian Xing Ji tens of kilometers away from the road. I have a preliminary idea: an earthquake, his influence field aftereffect point exception occurs, may often be the second earthquake epicenter. Such a thought at that time to establish, often Siguang talk Siguang said, I am not an expert in this area, you go find Professor Wang Ren. Wang Ren, mechanics, Professor Wang Ren said: Xiao Wang, it is very easy to explain.
Bohai earthquake occurred 69 years later. Bohai Sea region closest to the earthquake region of Shandong Huimin, Shandong Yantai, 69 years July 18 Prime Minister to ask what the hell is regional impact of heavy? Because it occurs in the sea, there is no method to do the observation. Prime Minister said that the meeting until tomorrow to open, and you open a helicopter along the coast to check today. We investigate on the plane, to July 19, the data a compact, short distance of the Benevolent found Yantai area, but not particularly heavy. The strange thing is than from far areas in Hebei and Liaoning Xiongyue FENGNAN region, far more, destroy heavy. This is how it was. I still can not use just thinking. 69 years behind a major earthquake is the Haicheng earthquake. Haicheng earthquake is xingyuecheng nearby. I immediately realized that we had two ideologically dangerous point. An earthquake, and the other how to do, Fengnan is Tangshan, Tangshan Feng southern regions.
Professor Wang Ren explanation is this: Xiao Wang, called stress transfer. Simple examples. Four people carrying a sedan chair, the chair is the earth pressure, four pillars, walked a man get down physical bad press, is an earthquake. Sudden fall at the same time, the weight to the other three individuals who were physically weakest of these three individuals get on the ground a second, then a third, fourth. Several earthquakes string hair, then, according to the first person to get on the ground after the stress transfer and found that the second quake, according to the second can be found in the third.
According to this idea, I have already said before the earthquake. In the National Chamber of Commerce, Haicheng earthquake in Tangshan City, Hebei Luannan field the fastest response. There is a safe Luan County Coal, there is a water radon index changes so fast, even bigger than the Haicheng. 1975 to the central reporting originals say this thought, here drew a triangle, is speaking Haicheng earthquake where to migrate, most likely along the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Bohai Sea towards migration. There Xiannian was reported, the mayor of Beijing. Have talked about this issue. Why I support the views of Geng Qingguo. Because I have such thoughts. I will not say the Tangshan earthquake.

Q: How does the year 269 documents issued?
Wang Chengmin: Zhou Enlai asked John Doe old, you see Hejian earthquake, and from Beijing is getting closer, you see how to say. Siguang said, pay attention to pay attention to the words of the Bohai Bay region, said a bit. Prime Minister issued a directive only pay close attention to the Beijing-Tianjin region earthquake trends. In this indication later engage in a text, the State Council, the next two years to pay attention to the northern part of the Bohai Sea, the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region earthquake occurred five to six possibilities to engage in a state organs forecast files, history is not yet over, and sixty NINE text. This case it appears the Haicheng earthquake prediction. Haicheng prediction is not isolated. This and Zhou Enlai, Li siguang about actions, which is the key. Hooker real Seismological Bureau, Dongtie Cheng, on top of the co-ordinators Liu Xiyao have played an important role. Geng drought shock theory is just one comment on it, someone who can understand. He overemphasized, thus resulting in a lot of people against it. He said that is because the 269 only get up drought earthquake, drought earthquake is just one opinion one ah. Central decision-making is not affected by such a ideological influence. Of course, some of the political role he played. 269 ​​mentioned two different views, including shock that there is a drought situation, as well as ground deformation radio station that is the case, played a role in history.
I can understand that he is too much under pressure, should be subject to a fair review. He did not even let him do the newspaper forecast. In this case, he was a bit rebellious. I desperately emphasize powerful, this mentality produces something. 269 ​​by the drought caused by the earthquake theory is wrong. Leaving aside the historical talk about a lot of things too, but just the opposite.

Q: How can the role and merits of MEI Review?
Wang Chengmin: do not say the things around Tangshan, Mei Shirong still a good expert, so-called experts than it is now much stronger, and now these people are simply not an expert. But the Tangshan earthquake gave her too much pressure. She is the head of. In fact, the real pressure for me, I had expected beforehand, but I did not expect such a big earthquake in Tangshan. I expect all of them to push things too bare, let me a stare, I'm sure things will be in trouble once. During the Cultural Revolution, people have the brains. During the Cultural Revolution, said the prison, saying that there may be a shot. So I take a lot of self-protection methods. Everywhere I go I make a speech, said to have earthquakes in North China, with my own name, contact number through personal relations committee, the military, so that all leaders listen to it again, there is record. Posters affixed to the leadership, the Beijing group comments posted on the Secretary of emergency Forecast door. I'm not sure of the Tangshan earthquake, but that whenever anything, do not let me bear this responsibility. I was leader of the team of Beijing and Tianjin, others open, and there are a go LONGLING, Ma Jin went cadre, and Mei Shirong go to Chengdu, Liu Yingyong day doctor, Hooker real sidelined. Rebels are slick, very, very slippery. There is merit to them, out of trouble is ours. At least, I want to protect themselves, no no, there is, at least not that I did not report to you. I wanted a way to let everyone know that I am anxious, I do not worry, if there are problems, I assumes primary responsibility for adopting these measures. Tangshan earthquake, I got rid of quite well. Some people do who pushed to resume business money, money is my deputy.
Q: What is the truth Majiagou how? Who is lying?
Wang Chengmin: money went Majiagou, made her mess, she did something stupid, wrote a letter saying sorry ah, who Majiagou open the letter, said Chien industry admit mistakes. In fact, I do not think she Chien industry that deny people's abnormalities. Why Majiagou hundred percent responsible for lying? - I give money to resume their task of the book is not Majiagou. Majiagou passing buy her own porcelain bowls, the first time I saw the man who responsible person surnamed Ma, I asked the horse, you say you give Seismological Bureau reported before the earthquake, when you quoted? He said, "Before the earthquake I give Hebei Seismological Bureau reported, I let them transferred to you." I said, "You make it clear that you are not reported directly to me." Shanghai people this is very fine. I said, "I want to ask Hebei Seismological Bureau has not received." He took a step back, said, "My name is Tangshan Earthquake turn." I said, "You did not report Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, the central government was not reported, You call Tangshan Earthquake turn, they turn not turn you know do not know. "Later, an investigation, he did not report in Tangshan City, is reported factory, called the factory report Tangshan City, Tangshan City, admitted he turned to the factory the. Tangshan City did not turn. He now is in the series, because of this incident, he tasted the sweetness, become deputies. National People's Congress Standing Committee to become. Extension of eligibility from year to year is always down, so it became a hero of the Tangshan earthquake, so he put the story have been growing circle. To establish a negative person. Day meeting in Tangshan City, I was commanding site command, he spoke, his mother took out clots of blood, the State Seismological Bureau said that the report, the money to resume business denied, someone asked who was Seismological Bureau, all of a sudden hit me under the table the. He was right there nose eyes. Such a cause. He is a little out of the ground plant, Chien industry accidentally went to see if there is no leakage. Chien industry, said, "I can not say this if I did not have much time left." Have been growing, Zhang Qingzhou in the "Tangshan cautionary recorded" in what is reported even written some sort. In fact, he is forecasting a group do not understand the point of a measuring people, just ask Chien industry discussions to see if there is no leakage. Horse compiled "abnormal, reported to the Seismological Bureau, Wang Chengmin distributing money to implement the resumption of business exception." There is no problem. It affects hundreds of thousands of dead things, affect a person's life honor. Benefits too. Many people are afraid to tell the truth. A liar, rising very quickly. Here one can say to each other to hell. In this case things do not become a scientific problem.

Chien industry that there is a major earthquake in North China, I took her to send classified as a shock, I was adamant that there are circumstances, it was the shock I think there is a camp coach. Article 269, issued 74 years, expires at the end of 76, is to extend or withdraw, most people think that a big problem in North China, Haicheng has occurred, we mentioned immunity, mentioned many leaders, including Liu Yingyong , people often mention in addition, a number of the main shock camp. My attitude is that time can not move the text 269. Tangshan earthquake, I immediately let all my office assistant Xiao Yang Feng. Save the information, and now lost a lot of information, or later that is not clear. Thanks to the end of the Cultural Revolution, if not over, certainly such a big thing to find a scapegoat! In this way, the Beijing-Tianjin group is revoked, Geng Qingguo was transferred business positions, I have not assigned the long-term work.

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To mix, especially in mixed within the system, the first skill, and is not to be chrysanthemum burst, especially screwed up, we are looking for a scapegoat in the case, this is a very interesting thing. A friend wrote me that advice, and now have the opportunity to do the provincial bureaucratic civil servant, whether you want to discard the current silver bowl? In my view, is to give all friends within the system mixed sentence: Unless you really have hob meat Popi momentum, plus knife tofu Liang Mianguang character, or you have a good father, it would be best not to go, or good results but mediocre life, bad results may be the body's first separation ...... ruin

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You can write whatever you want, but technically, the precise mathematical-statistical forecast of earthquakes based on information about the behavior of wild and domestic animals, birds, fish, and individuals available from 1995, with the advent of social networking.

THE STRUCTURE OF INPUT BIG DATA: API applications to social networks

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