Saturday, June 29

Top Global Threats: Climate Change and Financial Instability

Publics around the world are concerned about the effect of global climate change and international financial instability, with majorities in many of the nations surveyed saying these are major threats to their countries. But Islamic extremism is also a serious concern, particularly in the United States, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, relatively few consider American or Chinese power and influence a major threat to their countries.


Concern about global climate change is particularly prevalent in Latin America, Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Asian/Pacific region, but majorities in Lebanon, Tunisia and Canada also say climate change is a major threat to their countries. In contrast, Americans are relatively unconcerned about global climate change. Four-in-ten say this poses a major threat to their nation, making Americans among the least concerned about this issue of the 39 publics surveyed, along with people in China, Czech Republic, Jordan, Israel, Egypt and Pakistan.

These are among the key findings of a new survey by the Pew Research Center conducted in 39 countries among 37,653 respondents from March 2 to May 1, 2013.1 The survey also finds that at least half in all of the European Union nations surveyed, as well as in most Middle Eastern and African countries, consider international financial instability a major threat. This is especially the case in southern Europe: 95% in Greece, 75% in Italy and 70% in Spain express concern about financial instability.

Majorities in the U.S., as well as in many European and African countries, consider Islamic extremist groups a major threat. In Europe, concern about Islamic extremism is particularly common in Italy, France, Spain, Germany and Britain. Among the African publics surveyed, those in Senegal, Uganda, Nigeria and Kenya are more likely to say Islamic extremism poses a major threat to their countries. In the Middle East, majorities in Lebanon, Tunisia and Israel also express concern about Islamic extremist groups.
Americans and Europeans also express concern about Iran’s nuclear program. While fewer in most Middle Eastern countries surveyed share this concern, 85% of Israelis and 51% of Lebanese see Iran’s nuclear program as a major threat. North Korea’s nuclear program is also a serious concern for Americans; 59% say it poses a major threat to the U.S. Only in South Korea, Japan, Italy and the Philippines is there more concern about this.

For the most part, there is little concern about U.S. or Chinese power and influence among the publics surveyed. Only in the Palestinian territories, South Korea and Pakistan do majorities say U.S. power and influence poses a major threat to their countries; in South Korea and Japan, clear majorities say the same about China’s influence and power, as do 52% of Italians.

More than four-in-ten Americans say China’s power and influence is a major threat to the U.S. In China, 39% see U.S. power and influence as a major threat. Americans and Canadians Differ on Views of Global Threats




Americans and Canadians have different concerns when it comes to potential threats to their nations. North Korea, Islamic extremist groups and Iran’s nuclear program top the list of concerns among Americans, with majorities saying each of these is a major threat to their country (59%, 56% and 54%, respectively).

Among Canadians, however, only global climate change is seen as a serious concern by at least half; 54% say it is a major threat to Canada. More than four-in-ten Canadians also express concern about North Korea’s nuclear program (47%), international financial instability (45%) and Iran’s nuclear program (44%), but the opinion that these are major threats is less common in Canada than in the U.S. International Financial Instability and Islamic Extremism Seen as Top Threats in Europe

International financial instability is among the top three concerns in all of the European nations surveyed. Clear majorities in Greece (95%), Italy (75%), Spain (70%), France (66%), Poland (63%), Britain (59%), Czech Republic (59%) and Germany (56%) say this poses a major threat to their countries, as do 46% in Russia.

Europeans are also concerned about Islamic extremism, with at least half in Italy (74%), France (71%), Spain (62%), Germany (60%), Britain (55%), Russia (53%), Greece (52%) and the Czech Republic (51%) saying Islamic extremist groups are a major threat to their countries. In France, Germany and Russia, more say this is a major threat than say the same about any of the other issues tested.

Iran’s nuclear program and global climate change also register as top concerns across Europe. Clear majorities in Italy (70%), Greece (64%), France (58%), Germany (57%) and Poland (56%) consider Iran’s nuclear program a major threat to their countries. Climate change ranks as a top three concern in Greece (87%), Spain (64%), Germany (56%) and Russia (46%), and more than half in Italy (64%) and France (54%) also consider it a major threat.
No Consensus on Global Threats in the Middle East

Concerns about global threats vary considerably across the Middle East. For example, while 85% of Israelis say Iran’s nuclear program is a major threat – more than say the same about any other item tested – only in Egypt and Jordan does Iran also rank as a top three concern; and in these countries, only about four-in-ten say Iran’s nuclear program is a major threat.

Islamic extremism is among the top threats in six of the seven Middle Eastern countries surveyed, but only in Lebanon (70%), Tunisia (64%) and Israel (57%) do majorities consider this a major threat to their nations. In the other countries where Islamic extremist groups rank among the top threats, about four-in-ten in Egypt (41%) and Turkey (40%) and 35% in Jordan see extremism as a major threat.

Israeli Jews are far more likely than Israeli Arabs to see Iran’s nuclear program and Islamic extremist groups as major threats to their country. About nine-in-ten Jews (89%) express concern about Iran’s nuclear program, compared with a narrower majority of Arabs (61%). And while 61% of Jews in Israel consider Islamic extremist groups a major threat, just 34% of Arabs in that country say the same.
In the Palestinian territories, U.S. power and influence is a serious concern. About two-thirds of Palestinians (68%) see this is a major threat, while 54% say the same about international financial instability and 42% say this about global climate change. Among no other Middle Eastern public does a majority of those surveyed see U.S. power and influence as a major threat, although this ranks as a top three concern in Turkey, a NATO ally. More than four-in-ten Turks (44%) consider U.S. power and influence a major threat to their nation.

In Lebanon, where 45% consider U.S. power and influence a major threat to their country, about eight-in-ten Shia Muslims (83%) say this is the case. In contrast, 37% of Lebanese Christians and 27% of Lebanese Sunnis express concern about U.S. power and influence. Views about Iran’s nuclear program also vary across religious and ethnic groups; clear majorities of Lebanese Sunnis (80%) and Christians (56%) say Iran’s nuclear program is a major threat, compared with just 8% of Lebanese Shia. And while at least half across the three groups see Islamic extremism as a major threat, Christians in Lebanon are much more likely than Shia and Sunni Muslims in that country to express this view (91% vs. 59% and 52%, respectively). Concerns about Global Climate Change and International Financial Instability in Asian/Pacific Region

Global climate change and international financial instability are among the top concerns in the Asian/Pacific region. Half or more in South Korea (85%), Japan (72%), Philippines (66%), Indonesia (59%) and Australia (52%) say global climate change is a major threat to their countries. This issue also ranks among the top threats perceived in China, although relatively few in that country say it is a major threat (39%).

In South Korea (83%), Indonesia (56%) and Australia (50%), half or more consider international financial instability a major threat, as do more than four-in-ten in Malaysia (47%) and the Philippines (45%).

In Pakistan, U.S. power and influence is the only item tested that is considered a major threat by a majority. Six-in-ten Pakistanis express concern about the U.S. In contrast, Australians and Filipinos are the least likely among the countries surveyed in the region to say U.S. power and influence poses a major threat to their countries (19% and 25%, respectively).

Not surprisingly, South Koreans and Japanese are concerned about North Korea’s nuclear program; 82% of South Koreans and 77% of Japanese say this is a major threat. Japanese are also concerned about China’s power and influence; 74% see it as a major threat to their country. Global Climate Change Is the Top Concern in Latin America

In the seven Latin American countries surveyed, more say global climate change is a major threat than say the same about any other item tested. Concern about global climate change is especially widespread in Brazil (76% consider it a major threat), Argentina (71%), Chile (68%), Bolivia (65%) and El Salvador (64%).

International financial instability is also among the top threats in five of the seven Latin American countries, but only in Argentina does a majority (58%) consider this a major threat. About half in Brazil (50%), Chile (49%), El Salvador (49%) and Mexico (49%) also say international financial instability poses a major threat to their countries.

In Brazil and Chile, more than half see Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear programs as a major threat. A majority of Brazilians consider Iran (56%) and North Korea (55%) a major threat. In Chile, 55% say Iran’s nuclear program poses a major threat and 53% say the same about North Korea’s nuclear program.

U.S. power and influence registers among the top three threats in Argentina and Venezuela; 41% and 35%, respectively, consider this a major threat to their countries. Islamic Extremism, Financial Instability and Climate Change among Top Concerns in Africa

In five of the six countries surveyed in sub-Saharan Africa, Islamic extremist groups, international financial instability and global climate are among the top three concerns. In South Africa, where global climate change and international financial instability are considered top threats, China’s power and influence also ranks among the top three.

Concern about Islamic extremism is particularly common in Senegal (67% consider it a major threat), Uganda (64%), Nigeria (57%) and Kenya (55%), where clear majorities see it as a major threat to their countries. In Nigeria, Christians are far more likely than Muslims to say that Islamic extremist groups pose a major threat; 71% of Nigerian Christians offer this opinion, compared with 43% of Nigerian Muslims.

International financial instability and global climate change are each considered major threats by majorities in Uganda, Senegal and Kenya. At least six-in-ten in Uganda (64%) and Senegal (60%) express concern about financial instability, as do 56% in Kenya. When asked about global climate change, 66% in Uganda, 58% in Senegal and 57% in Kenya say it poses a major threat to their countries.

Results for the survey are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Survey results are based on national samples. For further details on sample designs, see below.

The descriptions below show the margin of sampling error based on all interviews conducted in that country. For results based on the full sample in a given country, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

For analysis, we grouped the 39 countries surveyed into six regions – North America, Europe, Middle East, Asia/Pacific, Latin America and Africa.

North America includes:
• Canada
• United States

Europe includes countries from both Western and Eastern Europe:
• Britain
• France
• Germany
• Italy
• Spain
• Greece
• Poland
• Czech Republic
Russia

Middle East includes countries and territories from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Turkey:
• Turkey
• Egypt
• Jordan
• Lebanon
• Palestinian territories
• Tunisia
• Israel

Asia/Pacific includes countries from Asia and the Pacific region:
• Australia
• China
• Indonesia
• Japan
• Malaysia
• Pakistan
• Philippines
• South Korea

Latin America includes countries from North, Central and South America:
• Argentina
• Bolivia
• Brazil
• Chile
• El Salvador
• Mexico
• Venezuela

Africa includes countries from sub-Saharan Africa:
• Ghana
• Kenya
• Nigeria
• Senegal
• South Africa
• Uganda


Variance analysis Rechkabo Kakuhoningen.
1. Europe, Poland. The nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran are very concerned about the people in this country. Perhaps Poland wants to make its nuclear program. But fears.
2. Europe. Greece, Italy. Very high level of subliminal social tension. These countries are on the brink of social revolution. Will continue to be France, and Spain.
3. Middle East, Turkey. Worried about the U.S. and pays no attention to Iran. So the Iran-American War, Turkey will be on the side of Iran.
4. Asia. South Korea and Japan. Very high level of subliminal social tension.
5. Asia. China. Very low levels of subliminal social tension. Strong State.
6. Asia. Malaysia. Actively monitor the nuclear programs. Probably would like to have your own.
7. Latin America. Brazil, Chile actively monitor the nuclear programs. Probably would like to have your own.
8. Africa ready for Islamization.

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